Not from the Republicans—Trump was seeking his voters from outside the GOP fold. Statistics is an important field of study because of its application in almost all walks of life. Statistics for Public Administration benefits local government managers and students hoping to make their career in the finest profession for people interested in leading their community. What about 2016? The demands of being a media property are great, and Silver must now produce “copy” on a daily basis, which does not always allow time for solid research. Strasma was unaware of Trump’s use of the models, which were obtained via a third-party vendor. subscriptions to newspapers), demographic information, and census information about the neighborhood in which the voter lives. By the time the campaign got to the “Endgame” stage, for example the probability that Trump’s nomination could be stopped by party leaders was drastically less than 50 percent. The advantage of statistics is that they're comparable. But Trump did have an analytics operation in the primary season. In a traditional contest, it will operate most often “at the margin,” where the seesaw is finely balanced. Quality testing is another important use of statistics in every area of life. The role of statistics in business management is pivotal. Senior Fellow, Economic Studies, The Brookings Institution, Discussant: Rebecca Blank Co-Chair, Council on Foreign Relations; Importance and Scope of Statistics: (i) Statistics in Planning:. The field of statistics is the science of learning from data. Statistics deals with numerical facts that can be measured, enumerated, and estimated. He is a co-author of "Data Mining for Business Analytics" (Wiley), and "Practical Statistics for Data Scientists: 50 Essential Concepts" (O'Reilly,2017), the author of "Introductory Statistics and Analytics: A Resampling Perspective" (Wiley), and the co-developer of Resampling Stats software. Finally, Silver erroneously assumed that the stages were independent of one another. Despite his expertise, he fell into one of the classic traps of non-statistical thinking: failure to take into account the property of dependence. All content © 2020 The Hamilton Project. George F. Baker Professor of Economics, Harvard University;  These statistical methods first appeared on the scene in the 2004 Kerry campaign. President Statistics is a crucial process behind how we make discoveries in science, make decisions based on data, and make predictions. Forum on “Statistics, Knowledge and Policy” to be held in Istanbul in June 2007. The facts are homogeneous and related to each other. Question 1: Give a comprehensive account of the importance of Statistics to you (i) as a government agent, (ii) as a Public Administrator, (iii) as an individual Statistics, is study of the systematic collection, organization, and interpretation of data. The American Enterprise Institute Auditorium1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NWWashington, DC 20036, TwitterFollow @hamiltonproj and see the conversation using #GovData. The modern economy is more reliant on data than ever before. Flying more under the radar, perhaps because it is less well understood by political journalists, is the role of data mining analytics, which gives candidates the tools to actually do something about voter opinion. Without reliable information about the economic and social environment, making sensible choices that produce positive outcomes in commerce, research, and governance is impossible. Now you might think that one hardly needs statistics for this: just look up whether someone is registered as a Democrat or Republican, and how often they vote (both are publicly available). Journal of Applied Statistics: Vol. Where there is only the central government, the government may not pay much attention to the needs of the people, and that is enough to stop the people’s interest to participate in the political affairs of their countries. The results of the census will show where communities need new schools, new clinics, new roads, and more services for families, older adults, and children. An agency in the Economics and Statistics Administration (U.S. Department of Commerce), STAT-USA's mission is to deliver vital economic, business, and international trade information produced by the U.S. Government to users for making important decisions that may affect their businesses, careers, communities, or personal finances. Statistics not only help measure business performance, but can also provide a means for boosting it. Companies might want to better understand the chances of certain pieces of legislation being passed in government and plan (and lobby) accordingly. Predictions made based on polling of traditional Democratic and Republican primary voters, especially early in the campaign, dramatically under-estimated their potential. A factory might want to simply count the number of widgets it makes. The Use of Statistics in Government Decision-Making With Particular Reference to the Reports of Royal Commissions. 2. Definition of Statistics. Use of predictive statistical models is widely viewed as a key contributor to Obama’s victories in 2008 and 2012. The forum began with remarks from Arthur Brooks and Robert E. Rubin. Statistics can usually be expressed as a percentage, a ratio, an average, a median and even a raw number. Under the provisions of the Act, the Government Statistician is required to compile and present before the Parliament the following reports: Before then campaigns thought of targeting exclusively in terms of groups: one message might be targeted at women under thirty, another at recent immigrants, another at rural whites, and so on. Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach presented on the value of government statistical agencies, followed by a roundtable discussion with Rebecca Blank, Martin S. Feldstein, Ellen Davis, Torsten Slok, and David Leonhardt. Ted Cruz was the candidate who embraced these techniques earliest and most comprehensively. Nate Silver, creator of the FiveThirtyEight blog, made statistics cool in 2012 with his confident and correct prediction that Barack Obama would win by a … Executive Director Top 12 Points Showcasing The Importance of Statistics in Our Daily Life. Silver wasn’t doing statistical modeling, he was doing back-of-the-envelope calculations. Statistics plays an important role in banking. Associate Editorial Page Editor The statistics of foreign trade may show that the government’s trade policy is going badly; the statistics of prices may show that its monetary policy is leading to inflation. Just because an event has two possible outcomes does not necessarily mean that the two outcomes each has a 50 percent probability (unless you’re doing something like flipping coins). Facts must be accurate and it must be collected systematically. It is the analysis, interpretation, preservation, and presentation of data. The Statistics Office plays an important role in providing non-Government bodies and individuals with general statistical information. (1981). Statistics shows that one of the major causes of political apathy in many countries is because of the the failure of the government to create rooms for the masses to participate. And governments are no exception. They must serve the need of government for efficient administration and management as well as for longer-term policy making. Statistics is intimately related to and essentially dependent upon mathematics. Statistics is one of the oldest subjects in human history. The importance of information in economic and political processes is widely recognised by modern theories. Director, The Hamilton Project Over the next decade, lawmakers, business owners, and many others will use 2020 Census data to make critical decisions. So what will be the future role of statistics in politics? THP blog posts offer analysis of economic policy challenges and highlight solutions to promote evidence-based economic growth. ... Statistical studies are extremely important in our everyday life. Indeed, just using those two variables buys you a lot of predictive power, and, in an election that is not close, you probably don’t need the added benefits of “microtargeting.”. And he lost in a bitter contest with Trump, who seemed to be following the model of free publicity for celebrities: whether the coverage is positive or negative matters little, as long as they spell your name correctly. Collection and Presentation of Data in a Calculated Systematic Manner NRF Foundation, Discussant: Torsten Slok  You have JavaScript turned off! The Office's duties are determined by the Statistics Act 1970. Importance of Business Statistics . Accurate and timely census and statistics play a vital role in policy formulation, development planning, citizen responsive budgeting, formulation of need based demand driven development interventions, National Policy and Economic Affairs State Minister Niroshan Perera said. Whether that means we can trust his projections is another matter. In a political campaign, success at one stage can improve the odds of success at the next stage—or diminish them. Importance of National Income Statistics There are several important uses of national income statistics and, therefore, there is great need for their regular preparation. On March 2, the Hamilton Project at Brookings and the American Enterprise Institute convened a policy luncheon discussion highlighting the important role of government statistics. A nation’s government runs on statistics. Chief International Economist According to Frederick J. Gravetter and Larry B. Wallnau, statistics "create order out of chaos" by summarizing and … Data analysis and statistics have been used to inform several important policy debates around the world over the past few years. The New York Times, Kriston McIntoshPhone: (202), Melanie GilarskyPhone: (202) Statistics can be used for making sales projections, financial analysis of capital expenditure projects, constructing profit projections for a new product, setting up production quantities, and making a sampling analysis to determine the quality of a product. Trump's nomination might suggest otherwise—but a new paper helps refute that idea. It is in those situations where accurately targeted individual get-out-the vote and persuasion efforts may tip the balance. Effective Government 179-223. 2, pp. Data is increasingly becoming the most important asset for enterprises. Insurance companies use them to guess whether a claim is fraudulent. THP forums bring together key policy makers, academic experts, and business leaders to discuss ways to address our nation’s most pressing economic challenges. Banks make use of statistics for a number of … The relationship … Statistics is basically a branch of mathematics that deals with the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data. Statistical knowledge helps you use the proper methods to collect the data, employ the correct analyses, and effectively present the results. Why Statistics is Important? Chancellor On a day-to-day basis, we conduct quality… THP charts, maps, and tables highlight economic policy challenges through dynamic interactive features. One, for example was “heightened scrutiny,” the point at which voters start to focus on a candidate’s strengths and weaknesses; another was “Endgame,” in which party leaders might pull out all the stops to torpedo the his nomination. Explore our digital archive back to 1845, including articles by more than 150 Nobel Prize winners. Now Yaneer Bar-Yam and Taeer Bar-Yam, of the New England Complex Systems Institute and MIT Media Laboratory, have now published a more thorough and scholarly assessment of the two-percent affair, and they’ve concluded that Silver’s explanation is basically right, but superficial. But Silver’s choice of six stages (not seven, not four) was purely arbitrary. This doesn’t prove that the original assessment of its probability was wrong. Deutsche Bank, Moderator: David Leonhardt In addition to voting behavior, consultants will consider consumer data (e.g. Silver himself attributes his miss to his failure to use statistical models in early estimates. Where did Trump get the statistical models to do this? His misstep in this one case is not likely to greatly devalue ESPN’s asset. Of course, probabilities are, by their nature, about events that are uncertain, and improbable events happen all the time. In politics, analysts use these techniques to guess two things about you: which candidate you favor, and whether you are likely to vote. As for the future of data mining analytics in politics, it’s hard to imagine that it will go away. But during the current Presidential election cycle, he stumbled badly with an early assessment that Donald Trump had only a two percent chance of winning the Republican nomination. Within state and national government agencies, statisticians play a vital role in assessing employment levels and needs of the population for health and social services. Javascript is required for the best experience on this site. Statistics plays a very pivotal role in our day-to-day lives. Banking. Meaning of Statistics. In highly energized campaigns like those of Trump and Sanders, it can help identify and turn out non-traditional voters. Its job was to identify and turn out (though not necessarily persuade) disaffected citizens who are not regular voters. From a statistician’s perspective, he risks just becoming just another pundit, albeit one whose opinions are cloaked in numbers. Most of the time, Silver actually does use statistical models, which generally deal with the aggregation and weighting of polling data—they’re snapshots of voter opinion. The application of data mining methods to politics means that messaging could be targeted to individuals—Irma Smith might get one message, Harold Jones another. Marketers use them to decide, for example, which online ad you are most likely to click on. In calculating Trump’s odds of winning, Silver postulated a series of six hurdles (he called them “Stages of Doom”) that Trump had to overcome in order to get the nomination. Importance of Statistics in Education. Scientific American is part of Springer Nature, which owns or has commercial relations with thousands of scientific publications (many of them can be found at, Americans Are Wary about Body-Enhancement Technologies, The Facebook Controversy: Privacy Is Not the Issue. Government – Government takes help of statistics to make budgets, set minimum wages, estimate cost of living etc. The Vital Role of Government Statistics: Strengthening Research, Governance, and Innovation. But Silver’s estimate of Trump’s probability of winning still seems way off. In this way persuasion messaging and get-out-the-vote efforts can be targeted where they will do the most good (and can avoid harm!). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and are not necessarily those of Scientific American. Here are a few examples: - In Kenya, a social experiment showed that neither hiring extra teachers to reduce class sizes in schools nor providing more textbooks to pupils had much effect on academic performances. It is an important branch of mathematics. Arthur C. Brooks  It is what helps us in predicting what might happen in the future and also to understand what has happened in the past. Nate Silver, creator of the FiveThirtyEight blog, made statistics cool in 2012 with his confident and correct prediction that Barack Obama would win by a wider margin than pundits expected—and especially with his uncannily accurate state-by-state predictions. Although the federal government’s statistical agencies play a vital role in generating this information, their value is often overlooked. Basically, he said he was acting like a pundit, but attaching subjective probabilities to his off-the-cuff estimates. Today statistics is used in a wide range of areas. We saw on the last night of the Republican convention how that turned out. Statistics play vital role in policy formulation - State Minister. Table of Contents. Terms and Conditions. Statistics is indispensable in planning—may it be in business, economics or government... (ii) Statistics in Mathematics:. The American Enterprise Institute, Robert E. Rubin Through microtargeting they were both able to find the non-traditional voters who would support them if they could be motivated to turn out for the primary.”. However, in a close election, that extra bit of predictive power that you can get from bringing numerous variables into a statistical model can make a big difference. Peter Bruce founded The Institute for Statistics Education at in 2002. University of Wisconsin - Madison, Discussant: Martin S. Feldstein The probability of success at any stage is dependent on prior outcomes. Government health and human service agencies gauge the overall health and well-being of populations with statistical information. THP collaborates with leading experts to produce evidence-based policy proposals that foster prosperity through broad-based, sustainable economic growth. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary, Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach In conjunction with this event, the Hamilton Project and AEI released a set of economic facts on the importance of government-collected statistical data. Most federal and provincial budgets are designed upon statistical data because it’s the most accurate data available when estimating expected expenditures and revenue.Another great example of statistics in the government is figuring out whether or not to raise the minimum wage due to a rise in the cost of living. Statistics is particularly useful in quantifying the landscape in all of the above examples. And even if they were the right ones, his assumption about the probabilities was flawed. Strasma, who continues to do political consulting but will share his methods with anyone in his online Persuasion Analytics course at, says: “Both Sanders and Trump defied expectations by appealing to non-traditional voters. Statistics are equally important to pharmaceutical and technology companies in developing product lines that meet the needs of the populations they serve. These methods are the political cousin of the same techniques that have been around somewhat longer in business, government, military, medical and other applications. President Emeritus, National Bureau of Economic Research, Discussant: Ellen Davis Subscribers get more award-winning coverage of advances in science & technology. 6 hours ago — Garrett Kenyon | Opinion, December 4, 2020 — John Horgan | Opinion, December 4, 2020 — Robin Lloyd | Opinion, December 4, 2020 — Avery Ellfeldt and E&E News. © 2020 Scientific American, a Division of Nature America, Inc. Support our award-winning coverage of advances in science & technology. Statistics produced and financed by governments have a dual role. Three primary uses that show the importance of statistics in economics include analyzing data, collecting information and testing hypotheses. Economics Statistics play a major role in this field and they feed into each since both are largely number- and fact-based. The government uses statistics to make decisions about populations, health, education, etc. The number that comes out is 0.0156, which is a bit less than two percent. What's important is that the method used to calculate the statistic is uniform each time. Silver assigned a 50 percent probability to his surviving each stage and then multiplied the probabilities together: 50 percent times 50 percent times 50 percent, and so on—another way of saying .5 raised to the sixth power. 8, No. Business Statistics helps a business to: Deal with uncertainties by forecasting seasonal, cyclic and general economic fluctuations Nate Silver’s persona and site are now deeply embedded in the political scene, and their owner, ESPN, will do its best to ensure that this continues to be the case. Discover world-changing science. Comparisons: After simplifying the data, it can be correlated as well as compared. They use statistical data to make their decisions regarding any number of things. Official statistics help decision makers develop informed policies that impact millions of people. He used statistical models created by the same firm that produced them for Kerry and Obama: HayStaqDNA, the creation of Ken Strasma.
2020 importance of statistics in government